Pooling Euro Zone Bad Debt

Where there is will there is a way!

Now this blog is ray of hope for bulls.

After reaming bearish for last three month we feel markets are showing some near term bottom out stage. Markets around world were falling from last 3 months we expect some up move in near term. ECB is expected to cut rates. Even Fed will come to rescue market with help of QE3.

Germany has indicated that it is prepared to accept a grand bargain that would provide greater support for its most indebted euro zone partners in exchange for far more centralized control over government spending in Europe. More likely is a plan to combine much of Europe's bad debt into a single fund, with the idea of paying it off over 25 years -- an idea gaining traction in Germany as an alternative to euro bonds, officials say. Changes on this scale would not be easy, involving an arduous process of treaty alterations that could take years, and it is unclear if they would be enough to reassure markets of the euros stability.

  Nifty has formed short term bottom near 4780.We are  suggesting to close all short position with profit and go for adventurous Long on Nifty. Nifty expected to jump towards 5130-5200 in near term future .Things that make us  bullish on nifty is that government is coming back with some reform for growth. RBI expected to cut rate in future. And very important factor is that Rain God has arrived in India.

Thanking You

Atul Sikrai

Sr Vice President

wiTdom investment advisory.

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Humpty Dumpty S&P and Nifty!!

With the blessing of lord Ganesh  wiTdom again got it right ! Just refer our march end blog about “Operation Evil Cat “.

Didn’t we tell markets are going to crashed?

Yes equity and commodity prices around the world have tumbled down. We did had warned Nifty will get to 4600.

Today nifty was near 4700 very close to our target of 4600.Rigid bulls around the world are running to cover their foolish long positions. IF you are regular reader of our blog you must have noticed that wiTdom was only firm that was bullish on Dollar and yes today dollar rupee is very close to 55 and dollar index is very near 82.Just watch for dollar index it has resistance near 82 if it crosses above it then no one on earth can save equity and commodity bulls.

Its proud moment for our fans, followers and readers to tell to the world see we told you operation evil cat was coming!!

Now let me tell you the secret how we predicted this fall also ….

First we were smart enough to measure leveraged level within financial markets.

For you kind information we want to reveal to you that ECB is 38 times leveraged it’s very close to Lehman default in 2008.We where very sure that ECB has lost its gun powder to save euro zone. We where very sure that euro is in deep trouble. Second thing we are betting was on our astro knowledge let me tell that we knew that from 16 May shani was getting vakri and its going to remain vakri till 4 august.

Our analysis is based on technical, fundamental and astro knowledge. And that’s why we are getting it right often.

In wiTdom the world trust !

Still thinking investment? Think wiTdom !

Thanking you

Always yours

Atul Sikrai

Sr Vice President

Witdom investment advisory.

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ECB Coeure

Spain, Pain & Sprain………
PIIGS : Portugal, Ireland, Italy & Greece.
PIIGS is really going through pain. And now core area of pain is Spain.Europe contagion now spreads to Spain and Portugal. Suicides case in Portugal at all time high.
This proves that people in Europe are not happy. So how can economy do well when people are not feeling good? With Spain’s three-month-old government struggling to reduce the budget deficit and crack down on overspending by regional administrations, borrowing costs have surged, nearing the levels that precipitated bailouts for Greece, Portugal and Ireland. Spain may “aggressively” tap support from the ECB instead of seeking a bailout. European Central Bank Executive Board member Benoit Coeure triggered speculation that the bank will revive its bond-purchase program to lower Spain’s borrowing costs as the region’s debt crisis threatens to boil over again.
We expect a very significant intensification of the euro- area debt crisis to materialize this quarter as the market refocuses on the fundamentals and the fiscal challenges of each country. Would Spain won’t need a bailout and will regain investors’ trust with the deepest austerity measures in three decades, including spending cuts and tax increases?

Our view for market is still bearish. Nifty is having a strong support at 5135.Nifty expected to trade in range of 5135 to 5350.

Thanking You

Atul Sikrai
Sr Vice President
wiTdom investment advisory.

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Operation Evil Cat.

Now Bears are going to love this blog. We at wiTdom are predicting that worst is yet to come .After evaluating macro and micro economic situation we feel that economy is still not out of the woods. Problems in Europe have not been resolved but panic is just been delayed by liquidity injection by ECB. Hard landing in China is here to stay being a growth engine of the world any slow down indication is going to jolt the growth of world economy. We expect that by early 2014 all commodity prices and asset prices are going to touch new lows. Any where in end of 2013 we may see new low on stock markets around the world which will be below 2008 lows. Now each one of you know that 13 is evil and cat is going to create lots of pain and anger on living being on earth. American economy is improving and stands at much better poison so our love for dollar still stays intact.
Our view for Nifty and sensex is negative .The New General Anti-Avoidance Rules (GAAR) provisions which will be applicable from April 1 2012, will see large scale selling pressure from Foreign Institutional Investors, with markets still unclear on the impact of the provisions. It may be recalled that Union Budget 2012-13 had provided for GAAR, following the Vodafone Supreme Court verdict in favor of Vodafone. FIIs will sell heavily on fears that the Union Government may raise tax demands as a result of these provisions. It is now believed that P-Notes through which billions of dollars flow into stocks will now be taxed. Any closing below 5160 can take Nifty to low of 4500 if 5080 is breached. We expect lots of selling by Hedge fund community in coming days.

Thanking you
Atul sikrai
Sr Vice President and Head of Equities
wiTdom investment advisory.

wiT + wisdom = wiTdom

Wit + wisdom = wiTdom
Can you concisely summarize your investment philosophy in a few sentences? My experience is that most people can't. The quotes that follow are diamonds that offer a real powerful education in the world of Risk Management. They have had a profound impact in my life. I pass them along hoping they achieve a similar effect on your investments. Enjoy!

1) "Rule No. 1: Never lose money. Rule No 2: Never forget Rule No. 1." -
2) "Large profits can be made in common stocks. Large losses can be made in common stocks."
3) "A fool and his money are soon parted."
4) "A fool and his money were lucky to get together in the first place."
5) "You should invest in a business that even a fool can run, because someday a fool will."
6) "The key in life is to figure out who to be the bat boy for."
7) "Let Wall Street have a nightmare and the whole country has to help them get back to bed again."
8) "There are two fools in every market. One asks too little, the other asks too much."
9) "The elements of good trading: (1) cutting losses, (2) cutting losses, and (3) cutting losses. If you can follow these three rules, you may have a chance."
10) "That market doesn't care whether you are IN or OUT! With that being the case, my question is who are you competing against? Most people will answer 'everyone else' my response is 'look in the mirror.'
Thanking You
Atul Sikrai
Head Of Equities
wiTdom investment advisory.
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Credit Event

Credit Event:
Greece Default at last it has happened. Thanks God its orderly default and not disorderly default.
This is what financial expert around the world where waiting for and atlast it has come true that Greece is declared bankrupt.
The ISDA said the use of "collective action clauses (CACs) to amend the terms of Greek law governed bonds issued by The Hellenic Republic such that the right of all holders of the Affected Bonds to receive payments has been reduced.” The "credit event" ruling means a maximum of $US3.16 billion of net outstanding Greek credit default swap contracts could be paid out, though the actual amount is likely to be lower because bondholders are not losing all of their original investment .ISDA said the auction will be held to determining the actual payout amounts on March 19.Greece said it would use the newly passed legislation that included the CACs to force private creditors into a bond swap. This follows creditors' voluntary tendering of 85.8 percent of the 177 billion euros in bonds regulated by Greek law. The use of CACs should boost participation to an estimated 95.7 per cent.

Credit default swaps tied to Greek sovereign debt have been triggered.
Dollar is expected to strengthen from here .We expect Dollar Index to resume its up move once again.

Thanking You
Atul Sikrai
Sr Vice President
wiTdom investment advisory

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Golden cross

As long-term indicators carry more weight, the Golden Cross indicates a bull market on the horizon and is reinforced by high trading volumes. Additionally, the long-term moving average becomes the new support level in the rising market. Technicians might see this cross as a sign that the market has turned in favor of the stock.
A crossover involving a security's short-term moving average(such as 50-day moving average) breaking above its long-term moving average (such as 200-day moving average) or resistance level.
--S&P 500's 50-day moving average crosses above 200-day moving average
--'Golden cross' is thought to mark transition to bull market
--Previous golden crosses preceded material gains over next two months

The Standard & Poor's Composite Index of 500 stocks posted its biggest January point gain in its history. But what may be technically more important for the longer-term outlook is that the S&P 500's 50-day moving average, or 50 DMA, crossed above the 200 DMA for the first time since Aug. 11, 2011.

Many chart watchers believe this technical event--referred to as a "golden cross"--marks the spot when a bounce within a bear market transitions to a bull market. I being a technical analyst have noted that "all sustained bull markets by definition come with the 50 DMA above the 200 DMA."

Just closely watching if Nifty and Sensex forms Golden Cross ?

Thanking you

Atul Sikrai
Sr Vice President & Head Equities
wiTdom investment advisory.