Win with wiTdom

Dear Reader

Please refer our blog called" tactically cautious" published few days back.

It was witdom who was super bullish on Dollar .We told you that Rupee is weak @ 54 since than it has fallen to level around 57. Watch out for 57.32 if crossed than we stick to our target of 60.

wiTdom was  first to say Yen carry trade is overdone since then yen has got stronger till level of  99.5 against dollar and Japanese market has fallen more than 15% .

wiTdom was first to read the minds of  US Fed and had warned about QE tapering.

Since then Fed has turn from dovish to hawkish. Fed members are now insisting on slow bond purchase.wiTdom sees unwinding of carry trade .

wiTdom was first to be bearish on Nifty since then Nifty has fallen from high of  6230 to 5880.

wiTdom was first to show growth concerns since then India’s GDP has fallen to worst level of 4.8%.

Sell in May and go away worked well for wiTdom because market has substantially corrected and stocks are falling about 40% in single day.

Thanking You

Atul Sikrai

SR Vice President

wiTdom investment advisory.

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MSCI Story

MSCI Story

 Dear Friends

MSCI(Morgan Stanley Composite Index )is about to be redefined.

Korea and Taiwan are going to re titled form EM To DM.

EM(emerging Markets) to DM(Developed Markets).

India’s weight age is expected to increase in EM basket. Which in turn shall  increase allocation to India in Em funds.

We at wiTdom expect fresh ETF(Exchange traded fund) money buying into Indian equities.

Gush of liquidity is favoring bulls right now. We expects 400 Billion Dollars of fresh fund to be moving around the world chasing various asset classes .So its cheap money which is creating fresh up move within Indian markets.

New bull case scenario for the bulls is that if Nifty crosses 6138 then it’s expected to cross 6300 in near term.

Thanking you

Atul Sikrai

Vice President

wiTdom investment advisory

Tactically Cautious

Tactically Cautious

Dear follower

As per our positive outlook for the Indian markets as mentioned in last blog Nifty has substantially bounced back. Our bullish call made Nifty jump from 5477 to 6100.

Stock specific returns had been more than 100%.We urge our readers to book this tremendous gains. We are tactically cautious on the market hence forth we close all our long trades.

Reasons for our being now bearish on markets are so forth.

1) Dollar Index seems to break out above 83 levels and is expected to move up towards 90.

2) Rupee seems to be weak and is expected to move to 60 against Dollar.

3) Geopolitical situation in Syria is going to create uncertainty in coming days.

4) Portugal seems to be in trouble and we expect lots of bad news from Europe.

5) Yen carry seems to be overdone.

6) Fed may unwind QE slowly going forward.

7) Political stalemate will hang on Indian markets.

8) We at wiTdom expect early elections in October 2013.

9) Reforms and growth concerns are going to arise because of instability.

10) Corruption eruption issue is going to lead huge resignations in coming days.

We urge all our reader to be cautious on equity and exit market .Sell in May and go away and come back after elections.

Thanking you

Atul Sikrai

Vice President

wiTdom investment advisory

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INDIA : A wiTdom View

India: A wiTdom View

Dear friends “Hell” was the real word experienced by the  HNI and Operator community who lost there shirt when stocks were falling 60% in a day and 80 % in fraction of 3 days .Don’t you remember we had warned our readers in our last blog .

We at wiTdom see market bouncing back from this level.

What makes us bullish?

1) India’s GDP has bottom out at 4.5% we see a trough.

2) Retail redemption and selling by local mutual fund seems to getting over which was mainly due to ULIP redemption.

3) Oil prices are expected to fall which shall be in favors of India.

4) Inflation is expected to come down.

5) RBI expected to cut interest rates by 75 basis points in coming 6 to 8 months.

6) Government is trying to its reform process and expecting Fiscal deficit at 4.8 %.

7) We see fixed income to under perform and shift of asset allocation to equity as RBI cut rates.

8) We see dollar index has peaked around this 82 level.

9) Valuation of mid cap stocks are mouth watering.

10) Rupee is expected to gain strength in coming days.

Alas at last “wiTdom is Bullish”

Love to quote famous quote in stock market said in Hindi

“Pakad ke rakho badhega….”

That is “buy and hold your stock tight it would raise.”

Thanking you

Atul sikrai

Vice President

wiTdom investment advisory

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The Gate of the Hell

The Gate of the Hell

Dear folks if you are bull on economy and stock markets and if you had not read our last blog then you must be finding yourself standing in front of the gate of the hell. As per our last blog we did had asked bulls to exit long profitable positions and we expected return of bears which is what we really are feeling in the markets.

 Bears have successfully broken 200 DMA on S&P and if it remains below it is expected to fall to 1290.Our darling Dollar is seeing comeback and we at wiTdom had always remain in love with Dollar. Dollar Index is above 81 if it crosses above 82 then this gate of hell will be open for the bulls by the bears.

We gave Exit call on long position when Nifty was some where near 5850 and sensex was at 19000 and by our knowledge these where the recent highs for the markets.

Fiscal cliff, Tax and Subsidies are the new problems which America will be struggling to overcome in coming days. In India and else we see ca-pex cycle slowing and business confidence at very low level. Unemployment is very high and business leaders are in no mood to invest in there business. We are very sure that Europe is going to bust in coming days

Now it’s to seen how aggressive bears get to break important support levels and make this market free fall. If  Nifty stay below 5580 and 5410 then it can fall way back to 4780.

But bulls are gone fight back and try to save themselves but we think its advantage bears.

Thanking you

Atul Sikrai

Vice President

wiTdom investment advisory.

 http://satango.blogspot.in/2012/11/monkey-business.html

http://knowlezhrbanco.blogspot.in/2012/11/knowlez-is-power.html

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Toxic Structral Isuues

Toxic Structural Issues

With the blessing of Lord Ganesha as projected in our last blog we expected tactical technical rally and stock index has moved up more than 15% and stocks in specific has moved up in range of  40-90%.

We suggest our readers to book this humongous gain. As structural issue within the economy still exist and all is not honky dory.

During a period of strong global growth, growing capital flows, and prolonged stability earlier this decade, market participants sought higher yields without an adequate appreciation of the risks and failed to exercise proper due diligence. At the same time, weak underwriting standards, unsound risk management practices, increasingly complex and opaque financial products, and consequent excessive leverage combined to create vulnerabilities in the system. Policy-makers, regulators and supervisors, in some advanced countries, did not adequately appreciate and address the risks building up in financial markets, keep pace with financial innovation, or take into account the systemic ramifications of domestic regulatory actions.

We at witdom expect lots of toxic assets within our financial system.

Spain banking system is in deep trouble. From our sources we come to know biggest Real Estate players in Spain may go bust any time. Fiscal cliff problem in America will come as big negatives in coming days. We sound bearish and cautious on financial system for coming days.

Thanking You

Atul Sikrai

Sr Vice President

Witdom investment advisory

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Tactical Technical Rally

And that folks is the real question. Are we in a new secular bull market, or just a tactical rally within a trading range stock market that we have envisioned?

During times of high volatility and great economic uncertainty, it pays to remember that stocks represent partial stakes in operating businesses. Therefore, as long as the businesses you own are producing satisfactory results, it is best to ignore the market’s temporary appraisal of your holdings. It is worth noting that during secular bull-markets, stocks outperform bonds and cash.

A secular bull market has to be backed by a productive driving force... a new technology or industry that employs people, expands real production, and increases standards of living. We have seen none of that since 2000. Both the housing bubble and the current stock rally have been liquidity-driven, not productivity-driven. Until the next big technology takes root, we are destined to see repeated cycle of large rallies followed by failure to lower lows, and the efforts of the Fed & ECB to counteract the nature forces of recession will do nothing but accentuate those swings.

Since (unlike some people and/or groups) I tend to buy low and sell high - this hurts me how???? Every completed cycle sees my portfolios larger. Even if the system crashes - dividends tend to stay ahead of inflation. - Dividends were one of the very few things that were able to stay relatively ahead. My Portfolios will also do well in this environment. Even a secular Bear has quite a few up cycles in it - it is not really a problem IF you are prepared. As I said before "Bear markets simply put good stocks on sale." I believe this is a quote from "The Contrarian Investment Strategies" and is fitting at this point.

last few years??? I do not know about how anyone else did .The dividend paying stocks that I bought on sale were largely responsible for this performance. By the end of the year - not only was I ahead, but my portfolios had hit a new high and are still hitting new highs this year with no (or very little - I would have to check to make sure) cash added from my pocket.

Out of my being curious - what kind of hedges do you use? My main "hedge" is my trading portfolio.

Thanking You

Atul Sikrai

Sr Vice President

WiTdom investment advisory