The Lighter Side of Euro:

Mind you, humor is one thing that always crops up during a crisis, as demonstrated recently in this Blog.

Greece – a country that by its very name would make the Union slip-slide away.
Greece – a country where Euro means toilet, and that’s where it’s going.
What's the capital of Greece? About €3.
Q: Why is the Irish economy in such a crisis?

A: Because they always think their capital should be Dublin.

Ireland’s been downgraded from AAA+ to AA. Before, they were a battery for the remote control, but now they're only good for a Walkman.
It gets worse.
A Greek, an Irishman, and a Portuguese go into a bar. The German pays.
Hmmm ... how many jokes can we take?
And perhaps some of this is no joke.
After all, the Germans saying that they’re going to holiday in the Greek Islands for the next ten years because they’ve prepaid ... may go down well in Germany, but any German trying that in a Greek hotel, may find themselves out on their arsch.

So what is the reality?
In Heaven: the cooks are French, the policemen are English, the mechanics are German, the lovers are Italian and the bankers are Swiss.
In Hell: the cooks are English, the policemen are German, the mechanics are French, the lovers are Swiss and the bankers are Italian.

The European Parliament has decided to change the design of the euro when noticing that the first one was a bit boring and sad. The new design is a stronger and more aggressive one which will make people eager to consume. The European Commission has just announced an agreement whereby English will be the official language of the EU rather than German which was the other possibility. As part of the negotiations, Her Majesty's Government conceded that English spelling had some room for improvement and has accepted a five year phase-in plan that would be known as "Euro-English".

Meanwhile, some believe that Britain will regret not being part of the euro. This is down to the new controlling stranglehold in Europe of the inner sanctum – those in the euro – and the rest – those not. This may create a rift in European Union, but is necessary if the Germans are going to keep paying for holding the Euro zone together. This is why some folks, even those within the Conservative Party, believe the UK must one day join the euro too. Nevertheless,talks of joining the euro are more divisive in Britain than ever, and is still unlikely in my lifetime.
One of the reasons they would never want to join the euro of course, is because they like the Queen and the Pound.

God Bless Euro

Keep Laughing

Always yours

Atul Sikrai
Sr Vice President & Head Equity

Disaster EDU Jour!

Disaster EDU Jour!
EDU: European Disunion.
As told in our last blog that we expected a Santa Claus rally.Markets around the world have risen up as per our expectations.We recommend all our readers to book profit on their long trades and go short on markets again.
Why to book profit on Long and go short again?
Euro is pain point it has tumbled down. Euro to Dollar is trading bellow our comfort zone of 1.30 it’s around 1.27 we expect it to crack down to 1.20.
What we see that environment is uncertain in Euro zone.We expect some kind of systemic failure in coming days.There is lot of uncertainty in financial markets. Look at Italian 10 year bond yield it’s still above 7 %.Lots of pain point still exists in Spain and Greece in coming days.
Spain's jobless rate is currently double the average for the euro zone, rising to nearly 32 per cent in places like Cadiz, a windswept port that has never recovered since its shipbuilding yards went the same way as those on the Clyde. The economy shrank nationwide by nearly four per cent last year, and in the bars of Cadiz's winding, cobbled streets, the sense is that things can only get worse - which, last week, they effectively did.
In France, the messages are also now mixed. Many believe that Mr Sarkozy's alleged pull-out threat was little more than sabre-rattling, pointing out that the French political establishment has long been wedded to the euro. Yet Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, a fomer member of Mr Sarkozy's UMP party who now runs an organisation called "Republic, Stand Up", claims to have got tens of thousands of signatures for his newly-formed petition, titled "Let's Leave the euro Before It's Too Late".
"Great Britain was very fortunate to stay out of the euro," he said. "Why should we have to pay the debts of other countries? The politicians in France created a religion, a dogma around the euro. But France is not Germany, and the French people do not want the German austerity cure, either politically or socially."
Be Smart and book your profit on stocks which has risen more then 25%.
Nifty too has bounced back to 4870 from our recommended level of 4650.

Thanking you
Atul Sikrai
Sr Vice President & Head Equities
wiTdom investment advisory.

Santa Claus Rally

The “Don’t Worry, Be Happy” crowd on
Dalal Street would very much like to get their greatest fable into full gear – the Santa Claus rally. Unfortunately, a few silly matters they would like us to consider unimportant, like the financial crisis in Europe and the coming debt disaster here in the U.S., has caused a flight delay of Santa’s ride over Wall & Broad.
But with “Gobble, Gobble” day near, I suspect the “happy” people and their favorite landing place for Santa’s reindeers .
As the name suggests, a Santa Claus Rally is when the stock market indices move higher.
There are certain times of the year when specific markets and sectors do better. We call this seasonality.The Santa Claus rally is a rise in stock prices in the month of December, generally seen over the last week of trading in December.
Focusing on the month of December and taking into account the last 10 years of market activity, I have created probability for you.The December Low Indicator was originated by Lucien Hooper, a Forbes columnist and Wall Street analyst back in the 1970s. Hooper dismissed the importance of January and January's first week as reliable indicators. He noted that the trend could be random or even manipulated during a holiday-shortened week. Instead pay much more attention to the December low. If that low is violated during the first quarter of the New Year, watch out!
As sugested in our blog last time booking profit on Nifty at 5090 turned true we gave you to go short on nifty which in turn did fall to 4670.Now as told previouly 4650 on nifty and 15500 on sensex seems to be good support.Now some bullish stand can be built expecting markets to go up in december .
Thanking You
Atul Sikrai.
Sr Vice President & Head Equities
wiTdom investment advisory.

Book Profit: Take Your Money Home!

We gave you buy call and markets around the world have bounced back.
Nifty has risen from 4650 to 5090 level and Sensex too has bounced back to 16900 levels from 15500 today. We suggest you to book profit in long trade.
Why to book profit?
We have seen quick gains in markets .Index have raised any where more than 7- 10 percent from recent lows and stock have raised any where from 10 – 20 percent.We see Euro finding resistance around 1.35. This will give support to dollar index at 78.It’s smart to book quick gains by going bullish on market.
So, it is important to realize that profit-booking is an important part of investment. And there are a couple of ways one can book profit. For that, the advice varies from stock experts to financial advisers, as the two communities play different roles. On the other hand, financial planners’ job is goal-oriented. They decide on investment, depending on what is to be achieved and when. They also take the risk appetite of the investor into account and, accordingly, allocate the money. As per them, profit-booking can be done at several stages.
When it comes to stock market investment advisers, they believe in booking profit at every rally. These experts look at equity investment only as a tool to grow wealth.

The journey of the market is never linear. There are interim rallies or corrections every now and then. These experts suggest that investors should buy at these interim dips and sell during rallies. But this does not mean that the entire portfolio should be sold and then bought back.
Smart Investor can go Short Too.

Thanking You
Atul sikrai
Sr Vice President & Head Equities.
wiTdom investment advisory.

Defensive Ends Offensive Starts:

Now this title is going to give smile on faces of equity bulls around the world.
If you must had read our previous blogs from past one year we were bearish on equity as an asset class and we got it right. After staying cautious and underweight on equities we change our stance from underweight to overweight. yes you got it right we are now “Bulls”.

What makes us to change our stance?
As you all readers know that we are strong believer in astrological predictions on market.
Combination of GURU & SHANI in Mesh Rashi projects bull run in equity as an asset class in near future.
We at witdom were quite bearish when Sensex was 21000 last year as valuations where high and P.E was at all time high. Sensex has corrected 25% from its top .Some Mid cap stocks have corrected more then 90% from there all time highs. We are getting bullish on market and these madcap stocks. Bear markets often ends with market capitulations in madcap stocks which are often held by large mass market participants.
Sensex chart shown in the blog shows that Sensex may form a bottom at 15500.Nifty may form bottom at 4650.This is right time to build long term portfolio with one year time frame. Market may fall if some negative development in global markets. But we think price wise correction has happened .But time wise correction may take some more time for up move.
Another factor that makes us Bullish is that policy paralysis which was major hindrance of growth for most markets are about to end. We see positive development by Indian government of FDI in retail sector as a first step in change of stance.
Looking at the global macro and micro economic situations we come to the conclusion
That leaders of various countries have woken up from there sleep and now working hard to resolve this financial crisis. Hard work by IMF can save us. EFSF can be super saver pack if activated in timely manner.

As according to our previous blog we made huge gains by loving dollar. We now suggest to sell Dollar. We see dollar index to have resistance around 80.Euro has jumped from 1.32 level which was according to retracement level from 1.44.

Yes we suggest Bear around the world to go on hibernation.
I would like to end this blog in typical Indian bullish words “Maal Laav “
Which means take my money and give me stocks which in turn shall give me wealth in long term.

Thanking You
Atul Sikrai
Sr Vice President & Head of Equities
witdom investment advisory.

3500 Page Views Hit .

Thanking all readers we reach 3500+ Page views.

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Thanking All Readers

Atul Sikrai

Sr Vice President & Head of Equities

wiTdom investment advisory.

Hopium & Healium

Hopium & Healium !!
Europe has rolled out a “pain sharing” plan for banksters to participate in their own losses. What a novel concept, share in socializing losses, an act of belated genius. Of course the timeline for instituting this measure is 2013, which suggests the hopium phase still lingers. Still I think we can see actual intent here.
To me this suggests that the Hopium adminstration is firmly committed to propping up busted states and bloated bankrupt european nations.
Viewers of our "witdom Blog" know that for the past few months Europe & America been pushing what we call economic "hopium.
Despite these positive data points, don’t confuse us with economic Pollyanna’s. We know the American economy faces major hurdles, primarily a 9.1 jobless rate and millions of underwater homeowners. And we acknowledge that many of the recently better data points are coming off the easy comps of historically low levels.
Healing of Euro Zone : Greece to receive further tranche of aidPrivate lenders to take 50% haircutEuro banks to raise €103 billion (£114 billion) in capital by July 2012Italy to reduce gross debt to 113% of GDP by 2014European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) to be boosted to €1 trillion.
The details of a number of key issues in the plan are “vague” and could well fail to stand up to scrutiny. The announcement of a 50% haircut for private bondholders as potentially unsustainable and says that there could prove to be “significant wiggle-room for banks to avoid the necessary degree of recapitalization.”
Europe would stand to benefit from a consolidation of power relating to fiscal policy,.” Ultimately, the single currency needs a euro zone political institution with executive power over fiscal policy. All of this seems like nit-picking today but in the months ahead markets will focus on these key issues.”
According to our previous blog our love for Dollar gave us fantastic return where rupee touched high of 50.20. We did tell you that Equity around world would bounce back and it has bounced back 15% from oversold zone. This rally is volatility rally due to technical short covering. Value based rally is not seen in near term since fundamental since remain weak.
Only three leading indicator data can make me equity bull and they are JOBS, JOBS & JOBS.
Thanking you,
Atul Sikrai
Sr Vice President & Head of Equity
wiTdom investment advisory.