Thursday, December 15, 2011

Santa Claus Rally

The “Don’t Worry, Be Happy” crowd on
Dalal Street would very much like to get their greatest fable into full gear – the Santa Claus rally. Unfortunately, a few silly matters they would like us to consider unimportant, like the financial crisis in Europe and the coming debt disaster here in the U.S., has caused a flight delay of Santa’s ride over Wall & Broad.
But with “Gobble, Gobble” day near, I suspect the “happy” people and their favorite landing place for Santa’s reindeers .
As the name suggests, a Santa Claus Rally is when the stock market indices move higher.
There are certain times of the year when specific markets and sectors do better. We call this seasonality.The Santa Claus rally is a rise in stock prices in the month of December, generally seen over the last week of trading in December.
Focusing on the month of December and taking into account the last 10 years of market activity, I have created probability for you.The December Low Indicator was originated by Lucien Hooper, a Forbes columnist and Wall Street analyst back in the 1970s. Hooper dismissed the importance of January and January's first week as reliable indicators. He noted that the trend could be random or even manipulated during a holiday-shortened week. Instead pay much more attention to the December low. If that low is violated during the first quarter of the New Year, watch out!
As sugested in our blog last time booking profit on Nifty at 5090 turned true we gave you to go short on nifty which in turn did fall to 4670.Now as told previouly 4650 on nifty and 15500 on sensex seems to be good support.Now some bullish stand can be built expecting markets to go up in december .
Thanking You
Atul Sikrai.
Sr Vice President & Head Equities
wiTdom investment advisory.

Tuesday, December 6, 2011

Book Profit: Take Your Money Home!

We gave you buy call and markets around the world have bounced back.
Nifty has risen from 4650 to 5090 level and Sensex too has bounced back to 16900 levels from 15500 today. We suggest you to book profit in long trade.
Why to book profit?
We have seen quick gains in markets .Index have raised any where more than 7- 10 percent from recent lows and stock have raised any where from 10 – 20 percent.We see Euro finding resistance around 1.35. This will give support to dollar index at 78.It’s smart to book quick gains by going bullish on market.
So, it is important to realize that profit-booking is an important part of investment. And there are a couple of ways one can book profit. For that, the advice varies from stock experts to financial advisers, as the two communities play different roles. On the other hand, financial planners’ job is goal-oriented. They decide on investment, depending on what is to be achieved and when. They also take the risk appetite of the investor into account and, accordingly, allocate the money. As per them, profit-booking can be done at several stages.
When it comes to stock market investment advisers, they believe in booking profit at every rally. These experts look at equity investment only as a tool to grow wealth.

The journey of the market is never linear. There are interim rallies or corrections every now and then. These experts suggest that investors should buy at these interim dips and sell during rallies. But this does not mean that the entire portfolio should be sold and then bought back.
Smart Investor can go Short Too.

Thanking You
Atul sikrai
Sr Vice President & Head Equities.
wiTdom investment advisory.

Sunday, November 27, 2011

Defensive Ends Offensive Starts:

Now this title is going to give smile on faces of equity bulls around the world.
If you must had read our previous blogs from past one year we were bearish on equity as an asset class and we got it right. After staying cautious and underweight on equities we change our stance from underweight to overweight. yes you got it right we are now “Bulls”.

What makes us to change our stance?
As you all readers know that we are strong believer in astrological predictions on market.
Combination of GURU & SHANI in Mesh Rashi projects bull run in equity as an asset class in near future.
We at witdom were quite bearish when Sensex was 21000 last year as valuations where high and P.E was at all time high. Sensex has corrected 25% from its top .Some Mid cap stocks have corrected more then 90% from there all time highs. We are getting bullish on market and these madcap stocks. Bear markets often ends with market capitulations in madcap stocks which are often held by large mass market participants.
Sensex chart shown in the blog shows that Sensex may form a bottom at 15500.Nifty may form bottom at 4650.This is right time to build long term portfolio with one year time frame. Market may fall if some negative development in global markets. But we think price wise correction has happened .But time wise correction may take some more time for up move.
Another factor that makes us Bullish is that policy paralysis which was major hindrance of growth for most markets are about to end. We see positive development by Indian government of FDI in retail sector as a first step in change of stance.
Looking at the global macro and micro economic situations we come to the conclusion
That leaders of various countries have woken up from there sleep and now working hard to resolve this financial crisis. Hard work by IMF can save us. EFSF can be super saver pack if activated in timely manner.

As according to our previous blog we made huge gains by loving dollar. We now suggest to sell Dollar. We see dollar index to have resistance around 80.Euro has jumped from 1.32 level which was according to retracement level from 1.44.

Yes we suggest Bear around the world to go on hibernation.
I would like to end this blog in typical Indian bullish words “Maal Laav “
Which means take my money and give me stocks which in turn shall give me wealth in long term.

Thanking You
Atul Sikrai
Sr Vice President & Head of Equities
witdom investment advisory.

Tuesday, November 22, 2011

3500 Page Views Hit .

Thanking all readers we reach 3500+ Page views.

Pageviews all time history 3,525
Soldier and Software Engineer
May 25, 2011, 2 comments 383 Pageviews
Dark Eagle is on Hunt.
Oct 7, 2010 127 Pageviews
Shekchilli, Gangu Teli, Mitti ka Madhav and Raja B...
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Sister of Inspiration
Apr 8, 2011 116 Pageviews
Hidden Secrets Of Wealth Creation.
Dec 1, 2010 96 Pageviews
Liquidity Black Holes About To Burst.
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Sell Tail Starts
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Nifty 6066 ,Bharti Airtel 446 is it Dream Come Tru...
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wiTdom Innovation Lab
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Thanking All Readers

Atul Sikrai

Sr Vice President & Head of Equities

wiTdom investment advisory.

Monday, October 31, 2011

Hopium & Healium

Hopium & Healium !!
Europe has rolled out a “pain sharing” plan for banksters to participate in their own losses. What a novel concept, share in socializing losses, an act of belated genius. Of course the timeline for instituting this measure is 2013, which suggests the hopium phase still lingers. Still I think we can see actual intent here.
To me this suggests that the Hopium adminstration is firmly committed to propping up busted states and bloated bankrupt european nations.
Viewers of our "witdom Blog" know that for the past few months Europe & America been pushing what we call economic "hopium.
Despite these positive data points, don’t confuse us with economic Pollyanna’s. We know the American economy faces major hurdles, primarily a 9.1 jobless rate and millions of underwater homeowners. And we acknowledge that many of the recently better data points are coming off the easy comps of historically low levels.
Healing of Euro Zone : Greece to receive further tranche of aidPrivate lenders to take 50% haircutEuro banks to raise €103 billion (£114 billion) in capital by July 2012Italy to reduce gross debt to 113% of GDP by 2014European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) to be boosted to €1 trillion.
The details of a number of key issues in the plan are “vague” and could well fail to stand up to scrutiny. The announcement of a 50% haircut for private bondholders as potentially unsustainable and says that there could prove to be “significant wiggle-room for banks to avoid the necessary degree of recapitalization.”
Europe would stand to benefit from a consolidation of power relating to fiscal policy,.” Ultimately, the single currency needs a euro zone political institution with executive power over fiscal policy. All of this seems like nit-picking today but in the months ahead markets will focus on these key issues.”
According to our previous blog our love for Dollar gave us fantastic return where rupee touched high of 50.20. We did tell you that Equity around world would bounce back and it has bounced back 15% from oversold zone. This rally is volatility rally due to technical short covering. Value based rally is not seen in near term since fundamental since remain weak.
Only three leading indicator data can make me equity bull and they are JOBS, JOBS & JOBS.
Thanking you,
Atul Sikrai
Sr Vice President & Head of Equity
wiTdom investment advisory.

Monday, September 19, 2011

Dollar Rocks Fed Twists.

Yes its party time for all Dollar bulls as suggested by us in May Blog Dollar is King.
As we told Dollar Index was about to shoot up and it has. Dollar Index has jumped from 74 and it’s very much near 78. Dollar rupee has jumped from 44 to 48.Its a gala time for all our reader and regular follower of this blog way back in late 2010 we told you to exit equity as an asset class from then till now markets around the world have crashed.
Its proud moments for all of to do thumping on the table and say to the world didn’t we told worst was coming. We had cautioned our reader way ahead in 2010 that 2011 is going to be year of financial turmoil and with the blessing of lord we got it right.
When Fed declared QE2 we did told you its creating greater fools theory around the asset class. All the bubble has already busted. Now Fed is not your friend. From our sources we know that Fed has done some secret lending to many financial institutions without taking permission from public. Now fed wants to reengineer QE3.
Our ability to study credit default swaps (CDS) reveals some nasty analysis.
According to us there is 12% chance of Bank of America getting Default.
And 15 % chance of European bank Société Générale defaulting.
Keep your finger cross there something “To Big to fail “process to be under covered.
Yes you know what we are talking about. There are lots of worms within the financial systems. There are huge chances of sovereign default in Europe.
Equity markets around the world are highly oversold so do expect some bounce back in near term. Stay connected with us more insight on world economy insights.

Warm Regards

Atul Sikrai
Sr Vice President & Head Equity
witdom investment advisory.

Wednesday, August 10, 2011

Difference between army n corporate life

An article by a Col :I was all of 48 yrs when I was superseded in my present rank. At asocial-do, I was asked by this pretty girl, ‘Just 48, and the end of theroad for you! What has Army really given you? You’ve never been paid well inthe Army. And see what they have done to you now!’I appraised her from top to bottom. I must confess she was a pretty sight.What I told her was this.Army, my dear, is a way of life. It is not about making a living. As far assupercession is concerned, lady, that is way of army life. You can’tcomplain just because your personal interest, as you perceive it, has notbeen looked after. Army has wonderful, time-tested evolved systems. Youdon’t fight personal battles for the heck of it. And it is aboutselfishness, dear – Service Before Self is our motto.Remember it is a Service (seva). There are no expectations of rewards inSeva, for Seva is considered its own reward. ‘What has Army given me?’, youasked. It has given me a glimpse and understanding of dimensions you, in thecivil sector, can only wonder and feel over-awed about. Have you any idea ofcamaraderie?When you see a soldier brave the shower of artillery shrapnels to rush torescue his bleeding colleague just wounded in the shelling you KNOW themeaning of the word ‘camaraderie’. When you are lying in a hospital on a DIList, and there are 20 blood donors of your blood-group spending the coldnight in the verandah of the hospital, just so that any emergency call forblood to save your life may be attended to, that is camaraderie. Camaraderieimplies selfless help and support to someone who is not necessarily afriend.You have to cross Banihal, my dear, to understand all this.Do you know the holy significance of the word ‘command’? It is a sacredword. And who can know the meaning of it other than a person in uniform?Even the CEO of a Fortune 500 company can’t comprehend the significance ofthis sacred word. When you are in ‘command’ you are God. Can you comprehendwhat being God can be like? It is not about the authority, it is aboutresponsibility. The authority comes into play after you have rendered yourpart of the deal of unflinching loyalty displayed towards your subordinates.Now when you signal him - not ask him or tell him or order him - todash-down-crawl-observe- fire, and in the process subject himself toimminent death, he does so without a second thought. This is when youREALIZE what is so sacred about command. Even before you can move your handto the door of the car/ gypsy, the driver jumps from his seat and beats youto the door, your door, is what command gets you. Such are the rewards ofcommand.Do you know the meaning of ‘being a gentleman’? In the last thirty years inuniform one has witnessed a proliferation of designations in the civilenvironment. There have been Executive Officers, and there have beenManagers - General Mangers, Assistant Managers, and a whole spectrum ofthem. There are CEOs and Vice Presidents. In the Army we have only‘Officers’. Some are General Officers and some just Company Officers. Evenat the induction level we have Young Officers. What it means to be an‘Officer’ is something you can’t comprehend. Hollywood tried to bring abouta differentiation, calling the phenomenon, ‘An Officer and a Gentleman’,little knowing that being a gentleman is inherent when you are an OFFICER.Being a gentleman is his primary nature, not second-nature. His behaviour isbhadra – i.e. kalyan-kaarak swabhav, guna, aur karma. Army imbibes thispeculiar quality in us when we are as young as 17 to 20 years only. I’llexplain with an example. An officer once held the door open for a particularlady. She, trying to be smartly polite said, ‘You don’t have to hold thedoor open for me just because I’m a lady.’ He replied, ‘Ma’am, I’m notholding it for you because you are a lady, but because I’m a gentleman.’ Wemay appear to be ruthless egoists, but we are Enlightened Egoists.In the corporate world have you ever come across the word ‘honour’? Inuniform we serve only for honour, not the ‘package’. Naam, Namak, Nishan –are alien words in the corporate world. You know what it means to serve forhonour? When a subordinate, who already has a bad ankle, is told of amission which entails 12 hours of walk in the most rugged terrain; and whenhe expresses reservation on account of his current physical condition, istold that if we can’t do it, it will be a smudge on the regiment; AND THEREIS NO ONE TO REPLACE HIM. He says he’ll do his bit. He climbs 10 ropes aheadof everyone else only to find that there is no one behind him and themission is thus called off. He reports from the top, only 5840m (nearly20000 ft!), that he with two others of his team are on top and no one is insight, either behind him or ahead (enemy). He comes back to the base twodays later – and what an ankle he has! A swollen ankle with 10-inch girth!!!That is working for the honour.Army has commanders at every level – langar commander, section commander/detachment commander, platoon commander/troop commander, and up the chain toBrigade Commanders, and General Officers Commanding in Chief. The GeneralOfficers in command of field forces are the best in their league. What isimplied by the term ‘commander’? Maybe something you in the corporate worldwill never get to know. To be a commander implies responsibility, completeresponsibility. As a commander you are responsible for every dimension ofyour command – right from his morning cup of tea, his toilet facilities, hisprofessional training, his mental makeup, his family’ well being and hisspiritual requirements. In the Army we first train young boys, and now evenyoung girls like you, to be an Officer and then to be a Commander, in thatorder. Can you get an idea, even an iota of it, Lady? Can you get a feel ofwhy we feel distinctly proud, and display it, when we say, ‘We in the Army….’. Post Script‘I am already 25 year old. I suppose I can’t get enrolled to be an officer.What can I do now?, she asked me at a later get-together. ‘The best optionfor you now is to become an Army Wife!’, I suggested. Two years later thisgirl married a young Major. Now I only hope and pray that the Army Officersof the future do not belittle this young Army Wife’ perception of our Armyas I experienced during ‘my times’.

Jai Hind

Atul Sikrai
Sr Vice President & Head of Equities
wiTdom investment advisory

Wednesday, May 25, 2011

Soldier and Software Engineer

A conversation between a Soldier and Software Engineer in Shatabdhi Train ...

Vivek Pradhan was not a happy man. Even the plush comfort of the air-conditioned compartment of the Shatabdhi express could not cool his frayed nerves. He was the Project Manager and still not entitled to air travel. It was not the prestige he sought; he had tried to reason with the admin person, it was the savings in time. As PM, he had so many things to do!!
He opened his case and took out the laptop, determined to put the time to some good use.
"Are you from the software industry sir," the man beside him was staring appreciatively at the laptop. Vivek glanced briefly and mumbled in affirmation, handling the laptop now with exaggerated care and importance as if it were an expensive car.
"You people have brought so much advancement to the country, Sir. Today everything is getting computerized. "
"Thanks," smiled Vivek, turning around to give the man a look. He always found it difficult to resist appreciation. The man was young and stockily built like a sportsman. He looked simple and strangely out of place in that little lap of luxury like a small town boy in a prep school. He probably was a railway sportsman making the most of his free traveling pass.
"You people always amaze me," the man continued, "You sit in an office and write something on a computer and it does so many big things outside."
Vivek smiled deprecatingly. Naive ness demanded reasoning not anger. "It is not as simple as that my friend. It is not just a question of writing a few lines. There is a lot of process that goes behind it."
For a moment, he was tempted to explain the entire Software Development Lifecycle but restrained himself to a single statement. "It is complex, very complex."
"It has to be. No wonder you people are so highly paid," came the reply.
This was not turning out as Vivek had thought. A hint of belligerence crept into his so far affable, persuasive tone. "
Everyone just sees the money. No one sees the amount of hard work we have to put in. Indians have such a narrow concept of hard work. Just because we sit in an air-conditioned office, does not mean our brows do not sweat. You exercise the muscle; we exercise the mind and believe me that is no less taxing."
He could see, he had the man where he wanted, and it was time to drive home the point.
et me give you an example. Take this train. The entire railway reservation system is computerized. You can book a train ticket between any two stations from any of the hundreds of computerized booking centers across the country.
Thousands of transactions accessing a single database, at a time concurrently; data integrity, locking, data security. Do you understand the complexity in designing and coding such a system?"
The man was awestruck; quite like a child at a planetarium. This was something big and beyond his imagination.
"You design and code such things."
used to," Vivek paused for effect, "but now I am the Project Manager."
"Oh!" sighed the man, as if the storm had passed over,
"So your life is easy now."
This was like the last straw for Vivek. He retorted, "Oh come on, does life ever get easy as you go up the ladder. Responsibility only brings more work.
Design and coding! That is the easier part. Now I do not do it, but I am responsible for it and believe me, that is far more stressful. My job is to get the work done in time and with the highest quality.
To tell you about the pressures, there is the customer at one end, always changing his requirements, the user at the other, wanting something else, and your boss, always expecting you to have finished it yesterday."
Vivek paused in his diatribe, his belligerence fading with self-realization. What he had said, was not merely the outburst of a wronged man, it was the truth. And one need not get angry while defending the truth.

"My friend," he concluded triumphantly, "you don't know what it is to be in the Line of Fire"
The man sat back in his chair, his eyes closed as if in realization. When he spoke after sometime, it was with a calm certainty that surprised Vivek.
"I know sir.... I know what it is to be in the Line of Fire......."
He was staring blankly, as if no passenger, no train existed, just a vast expanse of time.
"There were 30 of us when we were ordered to capture Point 4875 in the cover of the night.
The enemy was firing from the top.
There was no knowing where the next bullet was going to come from and for whom.
In the morning when we finally hoisted the tricolour at the top only 4 of us were alive."
"You are a...?"
"I am Subedar Sushant from the 13 J&K Rifles on duty at Peak 4875 in Kargil. They tell me I have completed my term and can opt for a soft assignment.
But, tell me sir, can one give up duty just because it makes life easier.
On the dawn of that capture, one of my colleagues lay injured in the snow, open to enemy fire while we were hiding behind a bunker.
It was my job to go and fetch that soldier to safety. But my captain sahib refused me permission and went ahead himself.
He said that the first pledge he had taken as a Gentleman Cadet was to put the safety and welfare of the nation foremost followed by the safety and welfare of the men he commanded... ....his own personal safety came last, always and every time."
"He was killed as he shielded and brought that injured soldier into the bunker. Every morning thereafter, as we stood guard, I could see him taking all those bullets, which were actually meant for me. I know sir....I know, what it is to be in the Line of Fire."
Vivek looked at him in disbelief not sure of how to respond. Abruptly, he switched off the laptop.
It seemed trivial, even insulting to edit a Word document in the presence of a man for whom valor and duty was a daily part of life; valour and sense of duty which he had so far attributed only to epical heroes.
The train slowed down as it pulled into the station, and Subedar Sushant picked up his bags to alight.
"It was nice meeting you sir."
Vivek fumbled with the handshake.
This hand... had climbed mountains, pressed the trigger, and hoisted the tricolour. Suddenly, as if by impulse, he stood up at attention and his right hand went up in an impromptu salute.
It was the least he felt he could do for the country.

PS:- The incident he narrated during the capture of Peak 4875 is a true-life incident during the Kargil war. Capt. Vikram Batra sacrificed his life while trying to save one of the men he commanded, as victory was within sight. For this and various other acts of bravery, he was awarded the Param Vir Chakra, the nation's highest military award

Warm Regards

Atul Sikrai

Sr Vice President & Head Equities

wiTdom investment advisory.

Thursday, May 12, 2011

Dollar is King

Dollar is king and Commodities its Slave in 2011
The inevitable periodic sell offs in the general stock markets indiscriminately hammer all stocks lower. But they pose a special magnified risk to commodities stocks. In addition to weighing on this sector directly, stock sell offs ignite fast US dollar rallies. This rapidly drives dollar-denominated commodities prices lower, amplifying the selling pressure faced by commodities stocks.

I believe that the market is a giant discounting mechanism. The market discounts news, political variables, and the future supposedly. It is hard to know if the future is actually priced in, but the experts say that it is as do the academics, therefore we might as well consider it fact else be thrown to the proverbial wolves. Can’t believe I'm about to say this, but I believe the US Dollar Index may be setting up to rally here.

A rally in the US dollar would be somewhat contrarian as most people are expecting a pullback. I'm not trying to imply that the US dollar is going to rally for the next five years. I'm trying to point out a short-term rally in the dollar is possible right now based on the daily chart. I would urge caution for those who are leaning heavily into shorting the dollar as it could backfire, particularly if gold, silver, and oil are unable to rally on dollar weakness.

So when the stock markets are falling, the dollar is surging, and commodities prices are weakening, Wall Street endlessly declares that commodities stocks are falling for fundamental reasons. With lower commodities prices, their profits will deteriorate. Provocatively, you usually hear bold declarations that the secular commodities bulls (or “bubbles”) are finished during these SPX-sell off events. This naturally leads to a really-negative environment for commodities stocks. They are often beaten to a pulp.

This probably sounds depressing at this point, but it really isn’t at all. Our goal as speculators and investors is simple, to buy low and sell high. In order to buy low, we need sell offs periodically to drive commodities-stock prices low enough to be relatively-cheap bargains. SPX sell offs, which are inevitable, healthy, and necessary to keep sentiment balanced, drive the best buying opportunities ever seen in this entire commodities-stock bull. These selling events should be gleefully anticipated!

Sell in May and Go Away.

Summer Cool Regards

Atul Sikrai

Sr Vice President & Head Equities

wiTdom investment advisory.

Thursday, May 5, 2011

Slow Down Before You Fall Down !

The RBI raised lending (repo) and borrowing (reverse repo) rates by 50 basis points to 7.25 per cent and 6.25 per cent, respectively. RBI has not been shy of sacrificing some growth in the process and they have reiterated that they would take further action if inflation does not ease off following these steps. Inflation, especially core inflation is at uncomfortable levels and RBI will have to continue policy tightening in the months ahead to contain it from becoming generalized at elevated levels.

Aggressive RBI action is likely to help slowdown credit off-take and reduce demand in the system which will help counter the rising fuel costs and associated increases in production costs. However, we feared this will dampen the growth estimates of the economy and capital inflows will stay subdued.

As the system slows down, the EPS growth estimates will slowly be revised down and the markets will therefore, stay capped and not rise rapidly above the recent levels of 5,800—5,900 in the near-term, until the global commodities rally subsides in any meaningful manner. RBI actions on the monetary policy for 2011 have been fairly aggressive and the intent has been made clear to fight the inflationary trends in the economy. Facing downside risks from the sovereign debt crisis in the euro-zone nations and high oil prices, the Indian economy is likely to grow 8 per cent in 2011-12.

The International Monetary Fund and the World Bank had forecast that India’s economy would grow at 8 per cent and 9 per cent, respectively. Should the global recovery will impact our economy through trade, finance and confidence channels.
An environment of price stability is a pre-condition for sustaining growth in the medium-term.

The Inflation is new equation to be dealt with. Slowdown and fall down is the new normal to live with.


Atul Sikrai

Sr Vice President & Head Equities

wiTdom investment advisory.

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Thursday, April 21, 2011

Risk Marries Growth.

Investment strategy reviews:

- Value Investing: "I won't buy unless the stock is selling for less than it is worth."
- Growth Investing: "I'm willing to take some risks for portfolio growth."
- Income Investing: "This money has to last a long time, I'm playing it safe."
- Mutual Fund Investing: "I want professional expertise guiding my portfolio."
- Index Investing (Index Funds and ETFs): "I'll let the market do the work for me."
- Momentum Investing: "I want to own hot stocks until they cool off."
- Market Timing: "Ride the Bull and hide from the Bear."
- Day Trading & Technical Analysis: "I have no fear of risk; I will take big chances for big gains."

Investors are constantly trying to find tomorrow's strongest stocks. They look for companies in the early stages of their growth cycle that are already showing signs of dominance. When they find a promising stock, they buy it even if it has already experienced rapid price appreciation in the hopes of riding the wave as the company grows and attracts more and more investors. There isn't a lot of analysis involved in growth investing; it is a criteria based strategy. When I say criteria based, I mean Growth Investors are much more concerned with whether a company is exhibiting behavior that suggests it will be one of tomorrow's leaders than they are about the fundamental or technical aspects of a stock.

Risk :
Growth investors will experience a lot more volatility than other strategies and the market. What does that mean? That means their stocks drop first and they drop the fastest during bearish periods. This is due to the nature of growth stocks, many are young companies with high P/E Ratios and are viewed as overvalued during market corrections and recessions. Growth Investors have to be willing to ride out losses until the market turns bullish again.

While Growth Investing is not as technically or analytically demanding as a strategy like Value Investing, it is still a very research intensive strategy. Growth Investors have to keep up with more than just the market, they have to know which industries, geographic regions, and stocks are hot and they also need be aware of new technologies, services and products quickly. Successful Growth Investors are constantly shifting to different types of stocks to make sure they stay invested where there is currently a lot of interest and innovation. There is an enormous amount of information available if you're trying to figure out what's "hot" in the market right now. Every web site, newspaper and magazine has a different opinion. Growth Investors have to be able to weed through all of this information and find the stocks that will be tomorrow's leaders.

Risk management is a tricky but critical component of Growth Investing. We at WiTdom have that expertise to balance growth with risk.

Thanking you

Atul Sikrai

Sr Vice President & Head of Equities

wiTdom investment advisory.

Friday, April 8, 2011

Sister of Inspiration

Sindhuja Rajamaran, a 14 year old girl studying 9th standard in India, has now become the world’s youngest CEO. Raised in Chennai, this girl is the Chief Executive Officer of his father owned company called Seppan. Seppan is an animation firm in Chennai. The recognition of youngest CEO was made by National Association of Software and Service Companies. This girl has won awards and recognitions in the past as well. Last year she was awarded the Fastest 2D Animator by Nasscom in Hyderabad. Sindhuja gives all her credits to her dad who is a cartoonist himself. She is now working on a few projects like the 2D movie called Virtual T-Nagar which reveals the true nature of the specific location called T-Nagar in the city of Chennai. She is also doing an Ad-Film with Joy-Alukas, a famous Jewelery Retailer. Corel has also certified her as the youngest digital caricaturist in the world.

The 14-year old girl became the head of Seppan Company, an animation firm, in October 2010. The company was set up by her father. She was adjudged the fastest 2D and 3D animator by software lobby NASSCOM (National Association of Software and Services Companies) at the Gaming and Animation Conclave 2010 held in Hyderabad. "I am just proud to be an animator. The CEO is just a post given in this company," Rajaraman. "I am learning animation for this CEO post to make myself worthy for the CEO post," she said. "There is no age bar or age limit for animation. Everybody can do animation." "The scope for animation in India is growing everyday. There is going to be a big boom in India and all industries are into the animation, they need animation and multimedia. I am enjoying work and I am also getting challenging works," she added.

Hope youngsters get inspired by her efforts and we congratulate on our side for her becoming the Youngest CEO! Regards

Atul Sikrai

Sr Vice President & Head of Equities

wiTdom investment advisory.

Friday, April 1, 2011

Sleep Like A Baby.

When investing your money, keep these words of wisdom in mind: ''If you lose Sleep over your investments or are more concerned with the performance of your Wealth then you is not with wiTdom.” wiTdom promises you not to give you sleepless night. You can relax and sleep like a baby when your wealth is managed by wiTdom. The risk/return tradeoff could easily be called the "ability-to-sleep-at-night test." While some people can handle the equivalent of financial skydiving without batting an eye, others are terrified to climb the financial ladder without a secure harness. Deciding what amount of risk you can take while remaining comfortable with your investments is very important. Get your investment professionally cleaned. Many people do not realize that such a service exists. It is a little known fact that the mites and bugs living in your investment contribute to allergies, congestion, and other breathing disorders that may be keeping you from getting a good night's sleep.Watch what you invest in. Not only is a unhealthy investment conducive to good sleeping patterns.Make a "Investment To Do" list for the next day before laying down. This allows you to get them out of your head and onto paper. If they are out of your head you will be free of the anxiety they bring with them. When you lay down for the night there should not be anything on your mind except how comfortable the bed is.

In the investing world, the dictionary definition of risk is the chance that an investment's actual return will be different than expected. Technically, this is measured in statistics by standard deviation. Risk means you have the possibility of losing some, or even all, of our original investment. Low levels of uncertainty (low risk) are associated with low potential returns. High levels of uncertainty (high risk) are associated with high potential returns. The risk/return tradeoff is the balance between the desire for the lowest possible risk and the highest possible return. This is demonstrated graphically in the chart Above. A higher standard deviation means a higher risk and higher possible return.

A common misconception is that higher risk equals greater return. The risk/return tradeoff tells us that the higher risk gives us the possibility of higher returns. There are no guarantees. Just as risk means higher potential returns, it also means higher potential losses. Happy to Help you

Atul Sikrai

Sr Vice President & Head of Equities

wiTdo investment advisory.

Wednesday, March 16, 2011

Global Macro vs. CTA's.

Also known as Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs), managed futures are a pool of futures or forwards contracts managed by professional money managers. They are similar to a mutual fund, in that individual or institutional investors have a share, only the investments in this case are mainly futures contracts. Unlike fundamental securities such as stocks and bonds which are held within a mutual fund, a future is a derivative instrument, one whose value depends on the value of an underlying instrument.
Today, managed futures provide direct exposure to international financial and non-financial asset sectors. Trading advisors have the ability to trade in over 100 different markets worldwide. These markets include interest rates, stock indexes, currencies, precious metals, energies and agricultural products.

Features of managed futures
Because the margin deposit needed to buy or sell a futures contract is only a portion of the current market value of the contract, managed futures have an inherent degree of leverage. Any change in the price of a security can consequently result in a much larger percentage gain or loss on the funds deposited as margin. A proficient use of leverage can result in desired levels of return for the amount of capital employed.
The trading is based on the systematic application of quantitative models that use moving averages, break-outs of price ranges, or other technical rules to generate buy and sell signals for a set of markets. This tends to be automated, particularly with the emergence of electronic trading systems

In general, most managed futures managers tend to view price trends as a function of supply and demand for a particular commodity or financial instrument. As the interaction of these elements form continuous market movements they try to capture profits. In short, managed futures managers attempt to identify the beginning of a trend, take a position and exit it as it ends.

Managed futures investments can benefit from the application of a range of trading systems or investment strategies, such as systematic, arbitrage, and spread trading strategies. Investment approaches can also be differentiated by trading frequency and duration.
Exposure across the full range of market sectors helps to smooth out peaks and troughs in performance due to the tendency of markets in each sector to display broadly different behavioral characteristics. For example, the factors affecting world commodity markets frequently differ from those influencing traditional asset classes. Like capital markets, global commodity markets tend to move in cycles - with periods of price strength usually associated with growth and stability in the world economy and periods of weakness with recession - but within these broad cycles there are often seasonal and sharp price movements prompted by a sudden change in the supply picture as a result of environmental or political factors. Trading commodities using futures, it is possible to reap gains from the sometimes fervent upward and downward price movements that result from the uncertainty that frequently drives these markets.

Futures funds themselves can be structured with a high level of diversification. The significant growth in the number and diversity of futures markets in recent years has facilitated a broadly diversified approach across geographical regions and asset classes, avoiding over-concentration in any market or market sector.

Friend’s American market started falling as soon we gave a sell on it during last blog.
Dow till date has fallen from 12200 to 11750 levels.

Thanks for all your trust and Faith.


Atul Sikrai.
Sr Vice President & Head of Equities
wiTdom investment advisory.

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Thursday, March 10, 2011

Sell Tail Starts

Sell Tail Starts:
We are Pleased to inform all our reader that popularity of our blog is growing day by day. We are getting thousands of hits .Geographic details of statistics reveal that we have conquered about 70% of globe. After predicting crash in Indian stock market correct we are getting many inquiries about our outlook for rest of the markets. Especially from smart money group like hedge funds are curious to know our out look for American Markets.
Now predicting global markets is like committing suicide i.e. if something wrong goes then people laughs at you if you are survived after suicide due to some reasons. On a lighter part
let us put our neck out and try to predict for them. Let’s talk about Dow & S&P.
Dow is already 87% up from its 2009 low. My gut feel say that Dow is going to fall from here. Worst case scenario I see Dow now falling from these 12100 level to 9990.We are first to give short call to these American markets. Let me give you rational for this fall that I am predicting. And rest of world will fall too.
During the October 1987 and October 1929 stock exchange crashes, the Planet Saturn was in the Astrological sign of Sagittarius. The significance of this is that Sagittarius, the combined horse/man, with Saturn having a connection in Greek / Roman / Etruscan mythology to agriculture as well as weights and measures and coins, means that Saturn in Sagittarius represents the third Horseman of the Apocalypse, economic depression. When Saturn is in Sagittarius you may get the trigger event, such as a stock market crash, that begins an economic depression. Saturn will not be in Sagittarius for many years, but you can still expect great economic chaos in 2011-2012.
Fundamental Bear points :
.Tension in Libya and crude may shoot to 130$ per barrel.
• The good news is all factored into prices. Investors, with optimism at a 10-year high, are too confident.
• A fresh boom in China helped pull the world economy back from the brink. That economic charge may be slowing - the jury is out;
• A recovery in house prices has ended. A second wave of falls, leading to more bad debts, could spark other waves of bank failures or another credit crunch;
• Governments took on too much debt in the boom years, and bad debt from banks, and some could fail to meet repayments;
• Spending cuts in the UK could hamper demand, if creates greater unemployment;
• Deflation may take hold, leading to a falling spiral of consumer and asset prices, including shares.
We see very interesting formation of Sell Tail within the charts of various developed markets. Now let’s see are we able to predict this so called giant fall or it’s just a correction that time shall tell. We suggest all our reader to temporarily quit their equities positions and you may invest in fixed maturity plans.
Always happy to help you all,
Atul Sikrai
Sr Vice President & Head Equities
wiTdom investment advisory

Tuesday, March 1, 2011

Band Baaja Budget .

Investor sentiments have improved after the FM did not propose a hike in excise duty in the Budget. The FM has also proposed to cut the surcharge for domestic companies, which is a positive. The target of 4.6 per cent fiscal deficit by FY12 had the markets happy. The FM has not proposed a hike in excise duty on cigarettes. Infra spending going up 27% is a big positive booster. We are expecting positive impact of 50-60 bps on earnings.
The move to allow foreign individuals to invest in domestic mutual funds is positive.
The increased allocation through the Bharat Nirman program to provide rural broadband connectivity to all 2,50,000 panchayats in the country in three years should bode well for more inclusive and sustained growth. Also stress on reforming education, healthcare and general administration are healthy indicators of future growth.
In the Union Budget 2011-12, the Finance Minister articulated its commitment to fiscal consolidation, infrastructure development, agriculture growth and enhancing governance standards. The Finance Minister has done a credible job in not just over-delivering on fiscal deficit target in FY11, but also clearing demonstrating his commitment towards fiscal prudence by laying down the fiscal deficit target of 4.6%, which is even lower than FRBM mandate of 4.8%. The Budget is also very aggressive in its 9% economic growth target for FY12, given that the economic growth momentum is gradually moderating.
Overall, the budget has laid down a constructive road map for Economic growth and has taken steps to align the existing tax structure with the proposed GST & DTC framework. It is heartening to see that the increase in allocation to infrastructure and education sector has been higher than that in social sector spending. The move to cash subsidy for petrol & kerosene to BPL families is a bold move. Amidst these positives, the key disappointment from the Budget has been very nominal hike in IIFCL’s disbursements targets in the light of our humungous infrastructure funding requirements & lack of focus on attracting FDI, which could have really spurred such inflows in the current environment of easy global liquidity.
The Union Budget 2011-12 has pleasantly surprised market since expectations were at the nadir. Enhancing FII investment in infrastructure bonds will also help in deepening the corporate bond market and will provide a hedge against the more volatile FII equity inflows. Lower than expected government borrowing program of Rs 3.43 trillion (expectations of Rs3.7-3.9 trillion) positively surprised the bond market and provided a much needed sigh of relief. This will not just help the GoI in better managing its borrowing program but will also ensure that there is no crowding out of private capex plans at this juncture which requires pick up in private investment to sustain the economic growth momentum & contain inflation. It is also positive for the banking sector as it will ensure that the upside to the long-term interest rates gets capped. At the same time, the short-term rates will also ease in the first quarter of FY12 with increased government spending & easing liquidity.
Nifty expect to cross its 200 DMA of 5630 and move towards 5700 .
Warm Regards
Atul Sikrai
Sr Vice President & Head Equities
wiTdom investment advisory.

Wednesday, February 23, 2011

Stocks prisoner to oil.

Oil on Boil :
We again got it right by getting bullish from bearish in our last blog sensex bounced back from 17300 to 18500.Now biggest risk to our bullish outlook is oil.
Turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa continued to send stocks lower and oil prices up on Wednesday as crude operations were disrupted in Libya.Energy stocks rose almost 2 percent in the broader market, but other sectors vulnerable to turbulence in oil prices, like airlines, declined as crude traded around $100 a barrel.
Investors are concerned about the effects on the global economic recovery if the unrest, which has already unseated governments in Tunisia and Egypt, is sustained or spreads to other critical suppliers like Saudi Arabia. With oil prices at a two-year high, some analysts say higher gasoline prices could bear down on consumers in the long term.
Because of the uncertain environment, extreme claims get a lot more press than they normally would. The most talked about report on trading desks today was Nomura's call that oil would hit $220 if Algerian and Libyan oil production came offline. In any other environment, such an extreme call would have been laughed at, but in this environment, this most extreme of calls is the one that gets all the play...and feeds into the frenzy.
With oil touching $100, it definitely makes it more efficient to use more corn for ethanol. True, traders like to point out to me that there is a lot of skepticism regarding ethanol — a lot of money was lost in the last run (2006-2007). But corn is up 2 percent today.
Remember the Great Trade: short dollar/long commodities/long commodity stocks — how many billions were made on that trade in the last two years? But it's history — it's not working any more, and certainly hasn't been working in the past few days.
I mean the "when all hell breaks loose let's buy the dollar!" trade. Notice all hell has broken loose, and the dollar index is DROPPING?
Some of this appears to be do to a bet on another issue: where the interest rate hikes may be coming from. The euro is rising because it is getting more speculative flows from higher interest rate expectations, from speculation that the ECB will hike earlier than the Fed will.
Trading starategies at wiTdom buy on fall sell on rise.Important level to watch out for Nifty is 5170 on down side and 200 DMA i.e 5630 on upside.
We are cautiously optimistic on stocks and oil is on our watch radar.
Thanking you
Atul Sikrai
Sr Vice President & Head of Equities
wiTdom investment advisory.

Saturday, February 12, 2011

Vision 2020 Sensex 100000

We at wiTdom here by declare end of flash crash in Indian stock market which we successfully where able to predict much earlier in October 2010 as per our October and November blogs. With the blessing of lord Ganesha none of our reader where hurt in this present crash. Now let me reveal to you why we predicted this market crash their where three reason for it.

1) Fundamental reason sensex was trading at PE ration of 21 on muhrat trading when sensex hit 21000.
2) Technical reason we saw formation of double top on the chart based on lunar cycles.
3) Astor Reason we have always seen bloodbath when ever shani gets vakri.

We now expect this bear market to end as we see that we are very near to lower end of channel formation which is some where near 17000 on sensex. We expect beginning of new bull market which always happens when there is capitulation and hard core bull dies.

Its would be smart tactical long term call to be a contrarian bull rather to be pessimistic bear now,
We suggest you to buy Indian stock with long term time horizon. It’s time to buy stocks for your kids.

Target of 1 lac was achieved by plotting 17.5 percent compounded annual growth rate to sensex we see this target.

Now you all will ask me what that kid is doing in this blog then I will tell you that kid is son of my cousin his name is Tanishq. My cousin just bought little smart stock for his son; He said to me that when Tanishq will be 10 years old in 2020 hope he will be able to have bright future.

God bless all of us.


Atul Sikrai
Sr Vice President & Head of Equity
wiTdom investment advisory.

Wednesday, January 19, 2011

wiTdom Innovation Lab

It gives me immense pleasure to see sensex getting crashed from 21000 level to present 18900 level.
We had predicted in our october 2010 blog about this crash and it just happened.We at wiTdom innovation Lab use our various strategies using various tools like Fundamental Analysis,Technical Analysis and Astro Analysis.Let me intoduce you today to what is Astro analysis.The two most fundamental principles of TRUE ASTROLOGY are the principles of Bear & Bull planets and Bear & Bull aspects. These principles are NOT my discovery; they have survived astrology for more than 5000 years. It is just that I have found methods & principles to verify that these principles actually work in modern financial astrology.
Let me now present some fundamental truths about astrology that many financial astrologers are in denial of today. 1) The Principle of Bear & Bull PlanetsThere are two bullish planets and two bearish planets, the two bullish planets are Jupiter (long term bullish) and Venus (short term bullish) and the two bearish planets are Saturn (long term bearish) and Mars (short term bearish).
2) The Principle of Bear & Bull AspectsThere are two bullish aspects and two bearish aspects, the bullish aspects are the trine (120) and the conjunction (0), the bearish aspects are the square (90) and the opposition (180). By combining the bullish aspects with the bullish planets and the bearish aspects with the bearish planets, many stock market ups and downs can already be explained (once the stock market ruling planets are known). If Bullish planets meat bearish aspects and vice versa, the Aspects will rule over the planets, meaning that Trines from Saturn will be bullish, while squares from Jupiter will be slightly bearish, slightly because the nature of Jupiter is bullish.
There are generally bullish and bearish planets and aspects that are responsible for all markets rising and falling. Yes particular planets are more important than others, when it comes to forecasting the short or long-term direction of a market. There are certain markets ruled by certain planets and horoscopes have values .The planets be used to determine support and resistance levels and to trade the markets based on price action.
Hope we soon get our crystal ball gazing for 2011 for you soon.
Always yours
Atul Sikrai
Sr Vice President & Head Equities
wiTdom investment advisory.